Europe, led by France and Italy, calls for a coordinated approach in a bid to compete with SpaceX, a leader in rocket launches, during the next decade. But can she really do it?
Concerned by the ever-increasing power of SpaceX, the European Union is aiming for a more aggressive space strategy. A few weeks ago, European Commissioner Thierry Breton planned to bring together the various actors needed to initiate an alliance allowing autonomous access to space for Europe over the next decade.
A few days ago, the French and Italian ministers also called for a significant "technological and industrial" response to the rise of SpaceX. With this in mind, the European Space Agency has just announced an initiative to investigate "future space transportation solutions".
Specifically, the agency promised about 500,000 euros to three companies – ArianeGroup, Avio and Rocket Factory Augsburg. The latter will have to study competitive launch systems from 2030, beyond Ariane 6 (medium launcher) and Vega-C (light launcher).
These last two launchers indeed already represent the next generation of European rockets aimed at meeting the continent's launch needs for this new decade (already well underway). From an earlier generation of boosters, they should debut within the next 12-18 months .
Once on the market, these two launchers will need to attract customers to be competitive. However, Europe seems increasingly preoccupied with the idea that, precisely, these two rockets might not be.
Economy ministers from France and Italy recently admitted that the launch market has changed dramatically since 2014, when the Ariane 6 and Vega-C rockets were already in the papers for the first time. In fact, the two ministers agree that the ability of these new rockets to obtain commercial launch contracts has since declined considerably, can we read in a report published in Le Figaro .
On the one hand, Ariane 6 will have to face, among other launchers, SpaceX's Falcon 9, which is partially reusable. While European Ariane vehicles once played a dominant role in the launch of geostationary satellites, they have now taken a back seat.
For its part, the Vega-C will also be threatened by the Falcon 9, which now offers "carpool" missions. In other words, customers today can take advantage of certain launches to release their small payloads “on the road”. The European launcher will also have to jostle with Rocket Lab, which specializes in sending small payloads into space using its Electron rocket.
As also reminded Le Figaro , Europe is also facing other delays on SpaceX. Thanks to its partnership with NASA, the company led by Elon Musk can now launch astronauts into space. French astronaut Thomas Pesquet must also join the next manned mission to the ISS (Crew-2), which is to be launched next month. And he will probably be the first of many European astronauts to reach space aboard a SpaceX vehicle.
Finally, Europe also has no answer to the Starlink megaconstellation currently being rolled out at high speed by SpaceX – whether in the capacity to build hundreds of satellites per year, or put them into orbit at a reasonable cost.
So Europe is reacting, but at least five years late. And for many, it's probably already too late.
